Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 55.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 19.7S/54.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 20.3S/53.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 21.1S/52.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 21.9S/52.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 22.6S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 23.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5- "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE, WITH IMPORTANT MAXIMUM WINDS EXTENSIONS, WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GAMEDE SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH, SLOWING DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD ON THE CHANNEL, THEN RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STREERING FLOW OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIELS BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON MONDAY.