Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 0000 UTC : 18.8S / 55.1E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 19.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 20.3S/53.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 20.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 21.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 22.9S/52.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 24.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=5.5- "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE, WITH IMPORTANT MAXIMUM WINDS EXTENSIONS, WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER. RADAR OF LA REUNION IMAGERY SHOWS AN 60 TO 70 KM DIAMETER EYE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GAMEDE SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH, SLOWING DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD ON THE CHANNEL, THEN RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STREERING FLOW OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIELS BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON MONDAY.