Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : 18.7S / 54.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 18.6S/53.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 18.5S/52.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 19.0S/51.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 19.9S/51.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 21.5S/50.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 23.0S/50.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 AND CI=5.0 GAMEDE PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT EXTENSION OF THE STRONG WINDS. RADAR OF LA REUNION IMAGERY SHOWS AN 60 TO 70 KM DIAMETER EYE. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GAMEDE SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, THEN SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STREERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARDS TRACK UP TO TAU 24 AND A SOUTHWARDS CURVE ON MONDAY.