Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/10/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/26 AT 0000 UTC : 18.4S / 53.5E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 700 SO: 700 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 18.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 18.6S/52.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 19.6S/52.3E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 20.9S/51.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 22.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 24.1S/50.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ GAMEDE PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT EXTENSION OF THE STRONG WINDS. RADAR OF LA REUNION IMAGERY SHOWS AN 50 TO 60 KM DIAMETER EYE. GAMEDE HAS PERFORMED A LITTLE LOOP, IT HAS TRACKED WESTWRADS DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS BUT IT SLOWS DOWN ONCE MORE. IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVED SOUTH-WESTWARDS IN THE NEXT HOURS. THEN GAMEDE SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STREERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.