Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4 97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone
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02.62.92.11.47
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
2.A POSITION 2007/02/26 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 53.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SO: 160 NO: 160
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 18.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 19.2S/51.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 20.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 22.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 23.5S/49.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 25.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 ; CI=5.5+
"GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT STRONG WINDS EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY TWO COMPETING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS : ONE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS, AND ANOTHER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STEERING "GAMEDE" SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNTIL NOW, THESE 2 STEERING INFLUENCES ARE BALANCED, BUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS.