Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/10/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/26 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 52.8E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SO: 160 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 18.6S/52.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 19.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 21.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 22.8S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 24.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 25.4S/50.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- ; CI=5.5 "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT STRONG WINDS EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY TWO COMPETING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS : ONE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS, AND ANOTHER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STEERING "GAMEDE" SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNTIL NOW, THESE 2 STEERING INFLUENCES ARE BALANCED, BUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING "GAMEDE" TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "GAMEDE" SLIGHTLY WEAKENED, BUT AS IT HEADS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT SHALL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.