Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/10/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/26 AT 1800 UTC : 18.3S / 52.8E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 320 SE: 550 SO: 400 NO: 320 50 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 2000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 19.0S/52.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 20.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 21.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 23.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 24.7S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/03/01 18 UTC: 26.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- ; CI=5.5 GAMEDE PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT STRONG WINDS EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY TWO COMPETITING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS: ONE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS, AND ANOTHER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STEERING GAMEDE SOUTHWESTWARDS. UNTIL NOW, THESE TWO STEERING INFLUENCES ARE BALANCED, BUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING GAMEDE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, GAMEDE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED, BUT AS IT HEADS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT SHALL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.