Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/27 AT 0000 UTC : 18.7S / 53.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 700 SO: 500 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 21.6S/51.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 23.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 25.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 26.5S/49.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 28.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- ; CI=5.5- SINCE YESTERDAY, GAMEDE SHOWS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS PATTERN. INNER EYE STARTS TO DISAPPEAR. THIS BEGINNING OF AN EYE CYCLE EXPLAINS THE DECREASING FLUCTUATION OF THE INTENSITY. GAMEDE STILL PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT STRONG WINDS EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY TWO COMPETITING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS: ONE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS, AND ANOTHER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STEERING GAMEDE SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR HAS WEAKENED, ALLOWING GAMEDE TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHALL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.