Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/27 AT 0600 UTC : 19.5S / 52.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 MOINS /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 700 SO: 500 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 21.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 22.5S/52.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 23.8S/51.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 25.1S/51.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/01 18 UTC: 26.3S/50.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/03/02 06 UTC: 27.6S/50.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- ; CI=5.0+ MICRO_WAVE AND EIR IMAGERY SHOW AN INTERRUPTION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIRD PART OF THE CIRCULATION, MOVING AROUND THE CENTER (LOCATED ON THE WEST PART OVER 0201Z AMSU AND ON THE NORTHERN PART OVER SSMIS AT 0450Z). THE EYE CYCLE HASN'T COMPLETED AND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS (2 OR 3) REMAIN REALLY OPEN. SO THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY WEKENING DESPITE AN IMPORTANT ONERTIA DUE TO ITS GREAT SIZE. GAMEDE IS NOW THRACKING SOUTWARDS, CURVING SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD REINTENSIFY LIGHLY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS.