Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/27 AT 1200 UTC : 20.3S / 52.8E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 MOINS /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 21.8S/52.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 23.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 24.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 26.2S/50.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 27.7S/50.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 29.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- ; CI=5.0- EIR IMAGERY SHOW AN INTERRUPTION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER HALF PART OF THE CIRCULATION, MOVING AROUND THE CENTER THE EYE CYCLE HASN'T COMPLETED AND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS (2 OR 3) REMAIN REALLY OPEN WITH SEMI-CIRCLE SHAPE. SO THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY WEAKENING DESPITE AN IMPORTANT INERTIA DUE TO ITS GREAT SIZE. GAMEDE IS NOW THRACKING SOUTWARD. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD REINTENSIFY LIGHLY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS.