Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/27 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 52.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 958 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 23.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 25.3S/51.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 27.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/01 18 UTC: 28.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/03/02 06 UTC: 30.1S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/02 18 UTC: 31.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+ ; CI=5.0- INFRA-RED AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND "GAMEDE" ; NEVERTHELESS, THIS WEAKENING IS TRANSITORY, AND TAKING BENEFIT OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "GAMEDE" ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY ALONG ITS SOUTHWARDS TRACK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.