Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 52.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 24.8S/51.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 26.3S/50.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 27.8S/50.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 29.2S/49.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 30.2S/50.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/03 00 UTC: 30.8S/50.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 ; CI=4.5 INFRA-RED AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND "GAMEDE" ; THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AT THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "GAMEDE" ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND STARTED HEADING FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.