Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : 26.5S / 50.4E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 964 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 600 SO: 550 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 28.3S/49.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/01 18 UTC: 29.6S/48.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/02 06 UTC: 30.8S/48.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/02 18 UTC: 31.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/03 06 UTC: 31.6S/48.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/03 18 UTC: 31.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5 GAMEDE IS SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFYING. GAMEDE SHOULD TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTAWARDS UNDER THE STEERIING FLOW OF EQUATORWARDS MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF IT, SLOWING DOWN PROGRESSIVELY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM IT, COMING CLOSER TO SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND A MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH OF AFRICA. GAMEDE SHOULD KEEP THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH SLIGHT INTESIFICATION POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER OCEAN (SST AT LESS THAN 26 DEGRES CELSIUS) SOUTH OF 31 SOUTH, BEYOND THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.