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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/10/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/01 AT 0000 UTC :
27.6S / 50.2E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 600 SO: 550 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 29.3S/49.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 30.7S/49.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 31.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/03/03 00 UTC: 31.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/03/03 12 UTC: 32.2S/50.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/03/04 00 UTC: 32.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+
THE REBUILDING OF AN EYE STARTED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS COMPLETED AND GAMEDE SHOWS NOW A LARGE RAGGED EYE OF 45NM DIAMETER.
GAMEDE SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTAWARDS UNDER THE STEERIING FLOW OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF IT, SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM IT AND APPROACHES A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH OF AFRICA.
THEN GAMEDE, UNDER COMTETING SEVERAL STEERING INFLUENCE, SHOULD ALMOST STOPPED AND SLOWLY CURVE TEMPORARILY SOUTHEASTWARDS,WEAKENING AND STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER COOLER SEAS (SST AT LESS THAN 26 DEGRES CELSIUS) SOUTH OF 31 SOUTH, BEYOND THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE FOERECAST RSMC TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF MOST RELIABLE MODELS.