Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/01 AT 0600 UTC : 28.5S / 49.9E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 600 SO: 500 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/01 18 UTC: 29.9S/48.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/02 06 UTC: 30.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/02 18 UTC: 31.1S/48.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/03 06 UTC: 31.7S/48.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/03 18 UTC: 31.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/04 06 UTC: 32.2S/48.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0-. CI=4.5- GAMEDE IS LOSING ITS STRUCTURE RAPIDLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MODERATE INCREASING, ARRIVING ON COOLER WATER. THE REBUILDING OF AN EYE STARTED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS COMPLETED AND GAMEDE SHOWS NOW A LARGE RAGGED EYE OF 45NM DIAMETER. GAMEDE SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTAWARDS UNDER THE STEERIING FLOW OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF IT, SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM IT AND APPROACHES A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH OF AFRICA. THEN GAMEDE, UNDER COMTETING SEVERAL STEERING INFLUENCE, SHOULD ALMOST STOPPED WEAKEN AND STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER COOLER SEAS (SST AT LESS THAN 26 DEGRES CELSIUS) SOUTH OF 31 SOUTH, BEYOND THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE FOERECAST RSMC TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF MOST RELIABLE MODELS.