Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/10/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1S / 48.6E (THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 600 SO: 500 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/02 06 UTC: 30.5S/48.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/03/02 18 UTC: 31.0S/47.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/03 06 UTC: 31.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/03 18 UTC: 31.7S/47.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/04 06 UTC: 31.8S/47.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/04 18 UTC: 31.9S/47.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- AND CI=4.0- GAMEDE IS LOSING ITS STRUCTURE RAPIDLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY MODERATE BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LINKED TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CENTER IS NOW COMPLETLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. GAMEDE SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS NEAR 32S WAITING FOR A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH FORSEEN AT MEDIUM RANGE.