Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/10/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/02 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.5S / 48.4E (THIRTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 300 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 31.2S/48.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/03/03 00 UTC: 31.6S/48.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/03 12 UTC: 32.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/04 00 UTC: 32.4S/48.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/04 12 UTC: 32.4S/48.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/05 00 UTC: 32.4S/47.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.5 GAMEDE IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS STRUCTURE UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY MODERATE BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LINKED TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CENTER IS NOW COMPLETLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. GAMEDE SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NEAR 32S AND 48E WAITING FOR A TROUGH TOWARDS THE SOUTH FORSEEN AT MEDIUM RANGE.