Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/10/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/02 AT 0600 UTC : 31.6S / 48.8E (THIRTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/02 18 UTC: 32.0S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/03/03 06 UTC: 32.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/03 18 UTC: 32.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/04 06 UTC: 33.1S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/04 18 UTC: 33.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/03/05 06 UTC: 33.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=3.5 GAMEDE IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE, WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY MODERATE BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION. GAMEDE SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AT MEDIUM RANGE.