Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/10/20062007 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.2S / 50.0E (THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 320 SE: 380 SO: 320 NO: 320 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/03 18 UTC: 33.4S/49.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/03/04 06 UTC: 33.5S/49.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/04 18 UTC: 33.6S/49.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/05 06 UTC: 33.7S/48.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2007/03/05 18 UTC: 34.0S/47.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/03/06 06 UTC: 35.5S/46.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: WITHIN AN UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SST NEAR 24°C), "EX-GAMEDE" SHOWS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH A BROAD LOWER LAYER CLOCCKWISE CIRCULATION (CF. QUIKSCAT 0238Z AND SSMIS 0404Z). THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. "EX-GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NEAR 34S ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, WEAKENINIG GRADUALLY, AND THEN TO VEER SOUTHWARDS AFTER TAU 48 TO 60.