Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/10/20062007 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/04 AT 1200 UTC : 32.4S / 49.7E (THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 350 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/05 00 UTC: 32.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/03/05 12 UTC: 32.7S/47.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/06 00 UTC: 32.8S/45.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/06 12 UTC: 34.1S/44.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/07 00 UTC: 36.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/07 12 UTC: 39.2S/45.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL BROAD AN WELL DEFINED WITH AN IMPORTANT EXTENSION OF THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. DEEP CONVECTION IS TEMPORARILY LOCATED NORTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE CENTRE DUE TO AN IMPORTANT SOUTHWARDS VBERTICAL WINDSHEAR, EXISTSING ALOFT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, ALMOSTSTATIONNARY, SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WELL ORGANISED, BUT WITH FLUCTUATING CONVECTION, NOT ENOUGH WELL ORGANIZED FOR A SIGNIFIANT RE-INTENSIFICATION (GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE 06, BUT TO COLD SST). IT SHOULD CURVE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS BEFORE EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELARATING WITH THE TROUGH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH BEYOND THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ONE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE MONITORED IN THE FQIO20 BULLETIN.