Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 88.5E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 210 SO: 210 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 11.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 12.1S/84.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 13.3S/83.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 15.1S/81.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 17.0S/80.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 18.5S/79.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. FOR THE MOMENT, DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY) IS FLARING WEST OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIGDE (RESPONSIBLE OF THE STEERING FLOW) AXIS ALONG 20SOUTH EAST OF THE LOW. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.