Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 85.5E (TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 210 SO: 210 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 12.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 13.0S/81.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 14.3S/80.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 15.7S/78.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 16.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.0S/77.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSRE 1931Z) SHOWS A SLIGHT BUT BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FULLY EXPOSED EAST OF THE STILL POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING DEEP CONVECTION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESPONSIBLE OF THE STEERING FLOW MIDLEVEL RIDGE, STRETCHING ALONG 20 SOUTH AXIS EAST OF THE LOW.