Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3S / 84.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 210 SO: 210 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 12.3S/83.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 13.6S/81.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 15.2S/80.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 16.6S/79.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 17.9S/78.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 19.2S/78.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 0228Z) SHOWS A BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL EXPOSED AND UNDERGOING AN MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD , SO LOW LEVEL INFLOW (GOOD TRADE WINDS AND MONSOON FLOW) IS. LAST METEOSAT7 VISIBLE CHANNEL SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ORGANIZING WITH BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGING BAND. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESPONSIBLE OF THE STEERING FLOW MIDLEVEL RIDGE, STRETCHING ALONG 20 SOUTH AXIS EAST OF THE LOW.