Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 83.9E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 210 SO: 210 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 12.5S/82.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 13.5S/81.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 14.7S/80.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 16.0S/79.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 17.3S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 18.7S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 AFTER REVEALING A LLCC EXPOSED IN THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER MORE PHASED UNDER THE SOUTEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENT IS MORE AND MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A GODD LOW LAYER INFLOW. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK LINKED TO A RIDGE STRECHING ALONG 90E AXIS FROM GROUND TO MIDLEVEL AND TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH ARRIVEING BY THE WEST.