Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 82.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 13.3S/81.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 14.6S/80.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 15.8S/79.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 17.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 18.5S/78.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 20.3S/77.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (WINDSAT 1212Z AND SSMI/S 1506Z) CONFIRM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. QUIKSCAT DATA (1249Z) REVEAL A MORE SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS TO BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A GOOD LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE. THIS SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK.