Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 82.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/81.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 15.4S/79.7E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 16.6S/79.1E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 17.7S/78.5E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 18.8S/78.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 20.1S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE AQUA 2014Z IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE LLCC IS NOT CONSOLIDATED YET AND THAT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC CENTRE. NEVERTHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE : WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW). THIS SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK.