Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/11/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : 12.9S / 81.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 14.0S/80.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 15.4S/79.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 16.5S/79.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 17.7S/78.5E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 19.2S/77.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 21.2S/77.4E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIF ABOUT THE NAMING OF HUMBA. T=CI=2.5+ THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OPTIMUM YET FOR AN INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE : WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW). THIS SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK.