Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/11/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 1200 UTC : 13.8S / 81.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 15.4S/80.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 17.0S/79.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.3S/78.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 19.8S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.6S/77.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OPTIMUM YET FOR AN INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE : WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW). THIS SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK.