Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : 14.6S / 80.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 16.4S/79.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 18.0S/78.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 19.8S/77.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 21.3S/76.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 23.2S/76.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 24.6S/76.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ SCATTERED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING IN A MODERATLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK MOSOON SURGE AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS SURGE). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WIDE AND WELL ESTABLISHED (CIRCULAR). THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK, AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH.