Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : 16.4S / 79.5E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 19.7S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.7S/77.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 26.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 27.5S/78.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+. HUMBA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTRED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.