Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 1800 UTC : 17.4S / 79.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 18.9S/79.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 20.7S/78.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 22.7S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 24.6S/77.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 26.4S/78.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 28.5S/78.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+. HUMBA BARELY CONSOLIDATES ITS EYE PATTERN ON THE IR ANIMATED IMAGERY. BUT ON SSMIS 1440Z, THE SYSTEM FEATURES A BANDING EYE ATTEMPT. HUMBA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTRED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.