Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 2100 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 79.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 09 UTC: 19.9S/78.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/25 21 UTC: 21.4S/77.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/26 09 UTC: 22.7S/77.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/26 21 UTC: 24.4S/77.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/27 09 UTC: 26.4S/77.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/27 21 UTC: 28.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- HUMBA SHOWS A MORE CLEARLY EYE PATTERN ON THE LAST IR METEOSAT7 IMAGERY AND HAS REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE. IT IS UNDERGOING A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HUMBA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTRED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.