Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 79.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 20.8S/78.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 22.1S/77.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 23.3S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 25.1S/78.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 26.8S/77.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 28.3S/77.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE OF "HUMBA". THIS SYSTEM TAKES ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. "HUMBA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE POSSIBILTY OF ANOTHER SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24, UNDERGOING AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, "HUMBA" IS EXPECTED WEAKEN GRADUALLY.