Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 78.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 26.1S/77.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 28.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 29.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- ; CI=5.0- AFTER A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND "HUMBA" EYE LAST NIGHT, THE LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FACT IS CONFIRMED BY THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (AQUA 0815Z, TRMM 0820Z AND NOAA18 0832Z) : ERODED CONVECTION NORTH OF "HUMBA" AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. "HUMBA" IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND SEEMS TO HAVE DISORGANIZED RAPIDLY UNDER A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWARDS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.