Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/11/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 1800 UTC : 20.5S / 77.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 22.0S/76.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 23.5S/76.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 25.0S/75.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 25.5S/73.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 25.7S/71.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 26.0S/69.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- ; CI=4.5 "HUMBA" SLIGHTLY WEAKENED DURING THE DAY, UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTH NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. "HUMBA" IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND SEEMS TO HAVE DISORGANIZED RAPIDLY UNDER A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWARDS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY, THEN MORE WESTWARDS FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ONCE SHEARED.