Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/11/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 22.5S / 77.4E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 24.3S/77.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 25.8S/76.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/02/27 18 UTC: 27.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 28.7S/75.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 30.0S/75.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 31.4S/76.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ ; CI=3.5+ "HUMBA" IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH "PUSHES" DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARDS (EVEN IF THIS ONE HAS RECENTLY REBUILT OVER THE CENTER) LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ESTABLISHED. "HUMBA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWARDS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER SEAS SOUTH OF 25 SOUTH WHERE SST ARE UNDER 26 DEGRES CELSIUS. THEN IT SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE WESTERLIES.