Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/11/20062007 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8S / 79.2E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 900 SO: 900 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 29.2S/78.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 29.9S/79.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 29.9S/80.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 30.3S/82.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 32.2S/84.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 35.6S/88.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: HUMBA HAS DONE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION , OVER WATER WHERE SST ARE UNDER 26 DEGRES CELSIUS AND WITHIN A STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. RESIDUAL ASSOCIATED THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER BROAD, AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, CENTRED RIGHT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. HUMBA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BEYOND.