Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/11/20062007 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-HUMBA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/28 AT 1200 UTC : 29.8S / 78.3E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 700 SO: 700 NO: 400 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 30.0S/79.4E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 31.1S/81.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 32.5S/82.4E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 34.3S/83.4E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/03 00 UTC: 35.8S/85.5E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/03 12 UTC: 37.5S/88.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-HUMBA" IS NOW AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WITH A BROAD AND ASYMETTRICAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE). "EX-HUMBA" HAS STAYED QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS LINKED TO LOW LAYER HIGHS SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS EVACUATE MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH BELT. LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, IT WILL BE NOW FOLLOWED BY THE MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN ON AREA-ACK : FQIO21 LFPW (FRENCH VERSION) AND FQIO20 (ENGLISH VERSION). CORRECTIVE ISSUED BECAUSE IT'S THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THE SYSTEM.