Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/12/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12 2.A POSITION 2007/03/10 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 61.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/11 00 UTC: 14.8S/59.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/11 12 UTC: 14.2S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/12 00 UTC: 14.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/12 12 UTC: 14.3S/57.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/13 00 UTC: 14.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/13 12 UTC: 15.1S/54.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5+ THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS RATHER LARGE PRESENTING A MONSOON LOW FEATURE WITH STRONGEST WINDS RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE (10 MN AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 30KT AT ST-BRANDON ISLAND AT 1200UTC). ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHLY FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR , GOOD LOW LAYERS INFLOW BUT WITH BAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DRY AIR POLEWARD IN THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LAYERS. NEVERTHELESS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO REACH THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND THEN TO STAY AT THIS INTENSITY DURING THE 36 HOURS BEYOND LINKED TO A BUILDING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS AT 5 TO 10KT. THE NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, SOME OF THEM DEEPEN IT GRADUALLY AT MEDIUM RANGE AS THEY MAKE IT TRACK WESTWARDS.