Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 2.A POSITION 2007/03/11 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 59.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/11 12 UTC: 15.4S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/03/12 00 UTC: 15.1S/56.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/12 12 UTC: 15.0S/55.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/13 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/13 12 UTC: 15.7S/52.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 16.0S/51.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0+. DEEP CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING AND CONCENTRATING ABOVE A LLCC INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED. ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHLY FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR , GOOD LOW LAYERS INFLOW BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, FIRST TRACKING WESTNORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES, THEN CURVING WESTSOUTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (TROUGH FAR IN THE SOUTH). THE NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, SOME OF THEM DEEPEN IT GRADUALLY AT MEDIUM RANGE AS THEY MAKE IT TRACK WESTWARDS. RSMC FORECAST IS RESULTING FROM AVALAIBLE MODELS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.