Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 2.A POSITION 2007/03/11 AT 0600 UTC : 13.4S / 59.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/11 18 UTC: 13.6S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/03/12 06 UTC: 13.7S/58.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/12 18 UTC: 14.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/13 06 UTC: 14.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 14.7S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 15.1S/54.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFYED DURING THE NIGTH, CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CIRCULATION BETTER DEFINIED, BUT IT SHOWS NOW A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH THE CENTER COMPLETLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. NEAR GALE FORCE EXTENSION IS GEATER IN THE SOUTH PART DUE TO THE GRADIANT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. GOOD LOW LAYERS INFLOW BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITH THE WEAKING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE RIDGE PRESENT OVER MADAGASCAR IN THE BEGINING OF FORECAST, THEN TRACKING WESTSOUTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST).