Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 2.A POSITION 2007/03/11 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 58.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/12 06 UTC: 13.7S/57.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/12 18 UTC: 13.9S/57.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/13 06 UTC: 14.1S/55.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 14.3S/53.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 14.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZES SINCE 1400UTC PRESENTING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE LLCC IS LOCATED AGAIN UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION (CF MICROWAVE SSMIS 1634Z IMAGERY) STRONGEST WINDS EXTENTION IS MORE IMPORTANT IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. LOW LAYER INFLOW IS GOOD AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS CLEARLY WEAKENING AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW SHOWS AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SLOWLY WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.