Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/12/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 2.A POSITION 2007/03/12 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 58.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/12 12 UTC: 13.5S/57.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/13 00 UTC: 13.7S/56.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/13 12 UTC: 13.7S/54.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 13.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 15.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.9S/51.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM HAS RE-ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY 1400UTC PRESENTING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE LLCC IS LOCATED AGAIN UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION (CF MICROWAVE SSMIS 1634Z IMAGERY AND AMSU N17 1827UTC) AND IS NAMED TODAY AT 0000UTC AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. STRONGEST WINDS EXTENTION IS MORE IMPORTANT IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. LOW LAYER INFLOW IS GOOD AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS CLEARLY WEAKENING AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW SHOWS AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THEN TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS TOWARDS A TROUGH SHIPPING IN THE SOUTH.