Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/12/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/12 AT 0600 UTC : 12.9S / 57.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 450 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/12 18 UTC: 12.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/13 06 UTC: 12.6S/55.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 13.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 13.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.9S/52.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 16.0S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. CURVED BAND PATTERN ON AMSU 0150Z AND EMBRYON OF EYE ON SSMIS 0344Z. MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A SLIGHT SHIFT BETWEEN LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CENTRES, HINT OF A EASTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFICIATE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.