Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/12/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/12 AT 1800 UTC : 13.1S / 56.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 450 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/13 06 UTC: 13.2S/54.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 13.5S/53.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 14.3S/52.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 15.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4S/51.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 15.6S/50.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING AND SHOWS A CDO PATTERN ON THE LAST MET7 VISIBLE IMAGERY, BUT AN BUILDING EYE IS VISIBLE ON THE LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFICIATE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.