Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 54.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 13.0S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 13.6S/52.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.7S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 16.6S/50.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 17.5S/50.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5 THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, "INDLALA" REACHED RECENTLY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE ANIMATED INFRA-RED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INTERMITTENT EYE STRUCTURE BUT THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE RECENT MICRO-WAVE DATA (TRMM 0133Z, WINDSAT 0227Z, SSMI 0346Z) SHOW AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE (DESPITE A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION SHALL KEEP ON. "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR SOUTHWEST WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN MALGASY COASTLINE.