Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 54.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 13.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 14.0S/52.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 14.5S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 15.3S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/50.4E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7S/50.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- ; CI=4.5 DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INTERMITTENT EYE STRUCTURE ; THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (AMSU-B 0650Z) STILL INDICATES A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM (DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR). NEVERTHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION SHALL KEEP ON. AS THE STEERING RIDGE MOVES EASTWARDS, "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR SOUTHWEST WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN MALGASY COASTLINE AFTER TAU 48.