Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 1800 UTC : 13.5S / 53.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 450 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 14.0S/52.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.8S/51.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 16.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.5S/50.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.0S/50.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- OVER THE LAST HOURS, A TEMPORARILY WELL DEFINED EYE WAS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY. BUT THIS PATTERN STILL BARELY LASTS. THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY SSMI 1621Z SHOWS A KIND OF "BANDING EYE" PATTERN. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE. AS THE STEERING RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.