Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 0000 UTC : 13.7S / 52.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 450 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 14.2S/52.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 15.8S/50.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.4S/50.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 17.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE ON THE IR IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE. AS THE STEERING RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.