Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 0600 UTC : 14.0S / 52.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.7S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 16.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.9S/49.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5-. A RATHER WARM EYE IS NOW PERSISTING, SHOWING THE ACTUAL INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONFIGURATION ON DIFFERENTS SAT IMAGERY IS FLUCTUANT BETWEEN EYE PATTERN (WITH CLOSED DEEP CONVECTION RING) AND BANDING EYE PATTERN (WITH OPEN DEEP CONVECTION BAND, AS IT IS VERY CLEAR ON SSMI IMAGERY AT 0218Z). ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE IN LOW AND HIGH LEVELS. THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY OVER SST AT MORE THAN 27°C, APPROACHING MALAGASY COASTS. THE STEERING FLOW RESULTS OF THE LIDLEVEL HIGH ACTUALLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WICH SHOULD CONSOLIDATE EASTWARDS, MAKING INDLALA CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS. NW MODELES FOERACT DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS AT MEDIUM RANGE, SOME MAKING IT TRACK SOUTHWARDS OVER OCEAN, OTHER MAKING IT MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND OR MASOALA PENINSULA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.